Reuters: Hamas Betrayal of Iran & Iran’s Betrayal of Hamas

Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Against Israel
Faces Trial by Fire

DUBAI, Nov 15 (Reuters) – Iran’s supreme leader delivered a clear message to the head of Hamas when they met in Tehran in early November, according to three senior officials: You gave us no warning of your Oct. 7 attack on Israel and we will not enter the war on your behalf.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Ismail Haniyeh that Iran – a longtime backer of Hamas – would continue to lend the group its political and moral support, but wouldn’t intervene directly, said the Iranian and Hamas officials with knowledge of the discussions who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely.

READ FULL REUTERS ARTICLE IN ENGLISH

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ANALYSIS by Dr. Mordechai Kedar (Hebrew)

YouTube Channel: Dr. Mordechai Kedar (Hebrew)

VIDEO #1 (Hebrew) – October 17, 2023
Hamas’s betrayal of the Iranians, the Iranians’ betrayal of Hamas | בגידת חמאס באיראנים, בגידת האיראנים בחמאס

Hamas, Iran & Hezbollah: A Morning War That Broke The Script

Ladies and gentlemen, today is October 17, 2023. Today is the eleventh day of the war in the south, and I want to tell you everything that happened here in terms of Hamas and those around it, so that we can understand the great betrayal of Hamas in Iran and Hezbollah, and the great betrayal, again, of Hezbollah and Iran against Hamas. What do I mean?

Hamas was not supposed to start a war on its own. Hamas was supposed to stand with the force that Iran built for them, and supported them, and helped them, and prevented them, and strengthened them, and prevented them, until the day when Iran would give the order to all together, Hamas, Hezbollah, the militias in Syria, the militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, all together, to attack Israel, and apparently this had to wait until the day when Iran would have nuclear weapons, and then no one could do anything to it. Despite Iran having built everything for them, they decided on the morning of Shemini Atzeret, ten days before Shabbat, to observe it on their own.

They attacked Israel, not on the Iranian side, not on the side of Hezbollah. They did not even inform them of it in advance. This was an operation by Hamas because they were creating an opportunity. And the opportunity that was given to them that morning was called the big festival, the Nova Festival, an outdoor music event near the Gaza border that became one of the main targets of the October 7 attack, where hundreds of civilians were killed, and dozens were kidnapped.

According to what I read, there was one more nature festival not far from there, a small one, not legal. One or two of these festivals were what caused Hamas to invite the attack that was supposed to arrive anyway. When? According to the Iranian command. But the “invitation” for a meeting on October 7, the same morning of Shabbat Shemini Atzeret, came because of the opportunity they had to capture, to kill, to swear, to entertain those who were there at the party. This did not happen on any other morning. That is why they did not attack on the morning of the first day of Sukkot, which was also Shabbat, not on Rosh Hashanah, which was also Shabbat, but only on that morning, because then there were those parties, and that was, in their view, the reason to invite the attack on that morning.

A Lone Decision & A Broken Axis

It was not in favor of Iran. It was not in favor of Hezbollah. Hamas hoped that if they started a war and it was so successful, they would be able to set up a line to capture and stand against the attacks of the IDF, then the others would join. That is, Hezbollah, Iran, and all the others.

But what happened?

• The IDF succeeded, within two days more or less, in cleaning up the Gaza border area from the infiltrating forces.
• With the terrible price that Israel paid, Hamas still managed to seize more than 200 hostages and take them into Gaza, a number that broadly aligns with estimates of around 250 hostages taken on October 7.

This, in fact, broke the unique line that Iran wanted to build. And the Iranians, therefore, did not enter the war and did not push Hezbollah to do so. Hezbollah did shell northern Israel and escalate attacks compared with prewar patterns. Still, it kept those attacks limited in scope and avoided an all-out war, despite its rhetoric and ongoing missile and drone launches.

What Hezbollah did in recent days, with a few explosions and the killing of a few Israeli officers, was not considered, in their view, a full entry into the war. This was not to “complain” about what Israel is doing in Gaza, where, according to the figures published by Hamas authorities later in the war, many thousands of Palestinians would be reported killed, even as Israel insisted it was striking Hamas’s military infrastructure. When you talk about the entire infrastructure of Hamas that was apparently damaged and the fact that Iran and Hezbollah do not enter fully, this is not just because of the Americans at sea. It is also because they were badly “betrayed” by Hamas. Therefore, they say: you started the war on your own, you handle it on your own.

“We Are Alone”: What Hamas Admits Today

How do we see it today? Listen. Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official, was interviewed by Orient News, and pay attention, I will translate it, listen, I will translate it.

Q: How can we coordinate now with Iran and the factions under this axis?

They asked him in the interview: How is the cooperation between you and the countries of resistance, that is, Iran and its allies? How does it work? What happens with it? Listen.

A: Unfortunately, there is no coordination. Not even at the level of communications or movements.
They ask him again: So what, also at the level of contacts, the conversations? Also, about that, there is no answer?

So he answers her:

Of course, there are communications.

• There are communications, and there are dialogs, and there is a call for participation.
• There are contacts, there are conversations, and there is even our invitation to participate in the war.
• But he continues and adds:
• I must say, in all sincerity, we expect that their understanding of what happened will be much more than what they are expressing today.
• And we call for more participation.
• And I expect that they will indeed participate.

In other words, they are telling Iran and its allies: we thought we would get much more. This tone of disappointment and frustration has also appeared in other interviews with Abu Marzouk, where he has acknowledged gaps between Hamas’s expectations and the support it actually received from Iran and its partners.

Is it now an open war? And is it, in his words, a brutal war whose “birds” will be killed, meaning many casualties? In short, what he says to the host is simple:

• They do not really come in.
• We are alone against the Israelis.
• The Israelis do whatever they want with us.
• We are controlled by them.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is what happened here: Hamas started a war alone, and now Iran and Hezbollah send them to do business alone with the Israelis.

What This Means For The North & The “Axis Of Resistance.”

If this analysis is correct, then the story in the north is probably over, at least for now. That is, there will be no great war in the north, and Hezbollah will not take the big risk at this stage.

Iran still has, even if the Palestinian army in Gaza is gone, because Hamas destroyed everything they had and everything fell apart there, a significant arsenal in the region. Iran has:

• Hezbollah in Lebanon, one of its most powerful proxies, has engaged in frequent limited attacks along the border while carefully avoiding full-scale war.
• Militias in Syria.
• Militias in Iraq that have already attacked US and allied forces in the context of the wider conflict.
• The Houthis in Yemen have launched missiles, drones, and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea in support of Gaza.

The Iranians still do not lose their hope. But they are not going to send Hezbollah into a full war in order to save Hamas, which fought for itself and broke the agreed-upon timing. According to the analysis we are discussing, this actually removes the possibility of a major regional war at this moment.

It is still very likely that Hezbollah in the north will carry out all kinds of small acts, such as firing rockets here, launching a drone there, or killing a person in a targeted attack. From their point of view, these acts still do not meet the minimum level of participation Hamas expects from them. And in fact, they will continue to prepare for the big day of the great war that Iran envisions as part of its “axis of resistance” strategy.

If Hamas rebuilds and rehabilitates itself well, it might again be part of that axis. If they will not rehabilitate themselves well, Hezbollah, Iran, and others will do the work alone. From their point of view, Hamas is “complete” or finished, at least for the time being, as a significant conventional military arm in Gaza.

This is the morning report on the situation in the war, both in Gaza and in other arenas. It reflects a wider pattern described in many strategic analyses: a restrained Hezbollah front, ongoing Iranian-backed militia activity regionwide, and a devastated Hamas facing Israel largely without the large-scale military backing it once imagined would arrive.

Looking Ahead With Caution & Hope

Let us hope that the stories with Gaza will end very soon, because if Hamas is dominated by the Iranians, then their ability to stand with the Iranian background, which apparently does not exist at the moment in the way they expected, is precisely what is needed to weaken them in their resistance against Israel. The Israeli side, regarding humanitarian assistance, can certainly bring better results than what we could have received if Hezbollah and Iran were entirely behind Hamas, as Hamas expected.

That is all, my friends. Let us hope for better days and for a better situation. With God’s will, we will investigate what happened, draw conclusions, and move forward. Thank you very much. Have a good day.

VIDEO #2 (Hebrew) – November 15, 2023
The theory was correct: The Iranians and Hezbollah abandoned Hamas | התאוריה התאמתה: האיראנים וחיזבאללה נטשו את חמאס

Understanding the Middle East & the War in Gaza

In this post, shared on Wednesday, November 15th, 2023, the focus is on why Hamas’s October 7th attack on Israel appears to have been launched without prior coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, what that means for the broader regional strategy against Israel, and why learning languages like Arabic is essential for truly understanding the Middle East.

Ladies and gentlemen, peace and blessings. Today is Wednesday, November 15th, 2023. A month ago, on Tuesday, October 17th, I uploaded a video about the theory that Hamas did not inform Iran, Hezbollah, and other partners in Syria and Iraq, and certainly not the Houthis in Yemen, about the attack they carried out on us on the 8th of Tzeret, on the 7th of October.

And as a result, I then raised the question that Hezbollah and Iran did not enter the war out of anger at Hamas, so that they broke the unified Arab chain, which was supposed, according to the Iranian plan, to launch a death blow on Israel from all fronts together, in an all-out war together. Hamas broke the chain and was therefore crushed. This is what I said then, as a reference by the Iranians and Hezbollah, and so then I made the announcement or the statement that Hezbollah, and certainly Iran, will not enter the war in full volume. Maybe they will do something on the borders, go out on the streets, but they will not enter the war with all the power they have. The matter is getting serious. Today, November 15th, Reuters reports that Iran will not intervene directly in the war in Gaza.

According to a Reuters report, the senior Iranian leader, Ali Khamenei, notified Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh during a meeting in Tehran. They do not give the date. Since Hamas did not inform Iran in advance about the intention to attack on October 7, Iran will not intervene directly in the war. Khamenei promised Hania to continue and support Hamas, as always, but clarified that there will be no direct intervention by Iran. In addition, Khamenei pressed Hania to silence the voices from Gaza that demand that Hezbollah and Iran do more in the fight against Israel.

That is to say, don’t count on us; you started a war, you are your own enemy. And this is what Reuters, today, on the basis of this meeting, confirms what I said a month ago, that this war of Hamas against Israel was in fact their private war, even though the evil army withdrew from Hamas, in accordance with this attack, to the united, invited attack of all together.

Why did Hamas do this?

We already talked about it. Because of the story of the Saudis, who didn’t want the Saudis to advance in peace with Israel. And also the opportunity they had that morning, of Shabbat, Simchat Torah, on October 7th, with the festivities that were there, and they gave them thousands of boys and girls, as a potential, to catch them as captives. Ladies and gentlemen, I am here again. I call on everyone to read about the Middle East and learn about it to understand what is happening around us.

Why Hamas Broke the Unified Front

And above all, to learn Arabic, or Turkish, or Persian, In order for you to have a direct access to the material, because back then, in that video, whose details are below, in this video that I’m talking about right now, already there I brought the recording of Moussa Abu Marzouk talking to some writer, and telling her, already then, a month ago, that the Iranians are not answering their phones. That is, there is almost no conversation with them. This means that when there is no dialog with the Iranians, that is, when the Iranians say to Hamas, go to hell, you started a war without our permission, you did not inform us, you did not ask for our permission, you took all the weapons we gave you, all the equipment, all the developments we made for you, all the support we gave you all these years, you went and destroyed it, you shot the bullet that was on your side, and therefore, You are at your own risk. And this is what Reuters is doing today, a month after I uploaded that video. I am calling everyone from here, and look, I am not young, I am 71 years old. And how many more years do I have?

Learning Languages & Reading the Region

Where are you from? Learn Arabic, learn the history of Islam, learn about Shia Islam and Sunni Islam, and all that, so that you, too, from small pieces of information, can reach large images. Now again, I am not arguing that Iran and Hezbollah will never enter the war. I say, to this day, a month, and Israel is threatening Gaza.

Israel has entered into an economic action that was not expected from Hamas. They, yes, completely, everything went to them there, because of this war that they did with Israel alone, and they did it alone. They were attacked by the Americans, their American leaders, mainly Hezbollah and Iran. And this has already been made clear a month ago, to those who are familiar with the Arabic material, in Arabic, those who are familiar with the discourse, those who are familiar with their issues, and I am here again, For anyone who has time on their hands and is able to learn Arabic, go ahead, learn Arabic, read material in Arabic, be exposed to the Arabic media, understand the head, and this will help you a lot to understand the environment that surrounds the State of Israel, and at this stage, we are not going anywhere, and they are not going anywhere, we were forced to live in their neighborhood, better or worse, And so we need to know and understand what they are saying, especially what they are saying. Thank you very much to everyone, and hopefully for better times, blessings, and comfort to all of us. Quick release for the kidnapped, comfort for the wounded, complete recovery for the wounded, and above all, great success for the soldiers.